Li Jianan, Tang Shengjun, Zhao Shuning, Gao Ling
China Review of Political Economy.
2025, 16(1):
199-224.
In the history of economic thought, Marx and Keynes hold fundamentally divergent views on the impact of technological progress on working hours.Marx argues that technological progress does not necessarily reduce working hours, whereas Keynes optimistically contends that it significantly shortens them.This paper examines the“Marx-Keynes”proposition on working hours through theoretical analysis based on political economy and empirical testing using econometric methods.Employing data of China's A-share listed companies, the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS) data, and census data, this paper constructs a unique industry-level panel dataset on working hours spanning 2001-2017.Taking the 2008 financial crisis as an exogenous shock to demand, a difference-in-differences model is used to identify the causal relationship between the organic composition of capital and working hours.The empirical results reveal that industries with higher organic compositions of capital are more likely to increase working hours in response to demand shocks.Specifically, in the aftermath of the financial crisis, industries with higher organic compositions of capital experienced an average increase of 0.8 hours in working hours compared to those with lower compositions. These findings remain robust after a series of robustness checks, including alternative measurements, controlling for other policy interventions, and placebo tests. Furthermore, the paper identifies profitability, market power, and the industrial reserve army as three mechanisms through which the organic composition of capital affects working hours. The empirical evidence supports Marx's theoretical hypothesis rather than Keynes'.